Analysis: Longhorns Derail Expansion Train

The Texas Longhorns celebrate their 2005 national championship at the White House with President George W. Bush.

It’s over.

The Texas Longhorns have done what no other university could possibly do: stop the runaway conference expansion train. By dismissing its most ardent suitor, the PAC 10 conference, Texas has put a stop to what would have likely created a wholesale shake-up in college sports.

Instead, Texas has saved the Big 12 from certain annihilation, keeping itself and the rest of the conference together.

TV Revenue

Texas had every reason to make the jump, but they also had every reason to stay. Arguably, the Longhorns are the most visible and powerful university in the conference with a Texas-sized say in how the league operates. And, with supposed assurances from the Big 12 that they would get a bigger chunk of television revenue, the appeal of traveling to the west coast to take on its newest rivals has been tarnished.

Certainly, the Big 12 has been damaged with the loss of the Colorado Buffaloes to the Pac 10 and the move of the Nebraska Cornhuskers to the Big Ten. Right now, the Big 12’s football title game is in jeopardy as the league will soon be without the twelve teams minimum needed to conduct this lucrative December contest.

Utah Utes

But the Big 12 will live on because the Pac 10 will have to look elsewhere for its own twelfth team, an opportunity I believe will eventually be presented to the Utah Utes. The Big 10, with a nice round 12 teams, will soon launch its own conference football championship, thumbing its nose at Notre Dame and having absolutely no pressure to add more teams.

Texas has not only saved the Big 12, but the Big East conference too. If there are to be any additional changes those will take place from Texas to the west coast as the Big 12 seeks two more teams, the Pac 10 one and the WAC wonders if it’ll be relevant with the pending loss of Boise State.

New Scenario

As mentioned, I believe Utah will become the twelfth member of the newly minted Pac 12. As far as new teams for the Big 12, the Texas Christian Horned Frogs seem the logical choice though there has been some talk that Texas would block TCU’s move. No, I don’t think that talk has anything to do with TCU’s upset of Texas in college baseball, a move that propels the Horned Frogs to their first ever College World Series appearance.

Besides TCU, there doesn’t seem to be a solid twelfth team to join the conference, so why not go with a patsy in the form of the New Mexico Lobos? Geographically attached to Texas, the Lobos wouldn’t be much of a threat to the rest of the conference, offering an easy “W” for most teams.

So, what do you think? Am I all wet? Or, are we simply seeing a lull before the storm resumes? Feel free to add your comments and a big helping of personal speculation!

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