Using Simulations as College Football Predictors

Using Simulations as College Football Predictors
  • Opening Intro -

    Explosiveness, Field position and Finishing Drives are some of the best factors of identifying the stronger team in a match.

    It highly advantageous for teams and fans to be able to predict their score in any season...


According to Billy Connelly, isolating performance in any game is basically statistics. Therefore, one can easily make accurate predictions of the college football season using simulation even before some of the key games are over. The simulation system entails three key stages: Win probability for a game, the Season simulation and Conference championships

Win probability per game

This is the first stage of the season predictions. It is developed from the Power Rank that is attained after the teams are ranked using the margin of victory. The power rank also pays attention to a team’s yards per play. Since the ranking are updated after each game using the victory attained against another average team, it can be used to predict the spread of the team. The difference attained from the predicted points attained using the rating system and the extra points gained by playing at home translates to the probability of a win.

Season simulation

AP poll or the current committee ranking is best used to make the season simulation. This is because it pays attention to the performance of the team throughout the season and not in only one game. AP Poll is made using the team’s playoff and its probability to win. The probability is attained from the second week into the season whereby the ability of the team is tested by flipping a coin and checking how many times it accurate. For instance, if the probability of Alabama team to win against Mississippi State is 75%, then the accuracy can be tested by flipping a coin in favor of Alabama three times out of four simulations. After the 14 weeks of the season, the simulation system will have identified the best team to win and the high levels of accuracy attained.

Conference championships

The conclusion of the simulation process is done using the conference championships that rank the teams according to their previous wins. The committee considers previous seasons before ranking the teams, and the likely hood of the top teams of the previous season winning is higher. However, weaker teams are not disregarded but their ranking is weaker and lower. Further, a simulation is carried out 10,000 times on a team’s playoff probability before a final decision is made on the championship. In all cases, the top four teams at the end of a season make the highest probability and therefore end up being the winning team.

In conclusion, having the ability to predict the results of the season way before the key games are played at the mid or even towards the end of a season will make football fun, challenging and better for both the supporters and the teams. Therefore, assist other people in predicting the performs of their favorite teams by sharing this article on social media such as Facebook or other relevant websites and inform them on the existence and accuracy of the college football Simulation system.


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Categories: NCAA Football